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10 Jun 2020 2019 shipments and 2020 outlook
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COVID-19 General disclaimer
Due to the uncertainty that COVID-19 crisis brought to the global economy, the consumer demand and the industry dynamics, along with the limited view we had of its impacts as of April 2020, forecast figures at the time of publication are exceptionally limited. Eurosmart will review the market and secure element segments in October. The 2019 figures remain the definitive ones.
“Eurosmart confirms a mature worldwide market in 2019 for secure elements”
Financial Services
In 2019, the overall growth is confirmed at +4%, representing an additional volume of 140 million cards compared to 2018 figure, and reaching a global payment card production of 3.3 billion units. The market is driven by a strong demand from North America and South-East Asia thanks to a mix of renewal and migration. Fintech companies are also supporting the sustainability of this demand by increasingly providing card solutions to their growing number of customers.
During 2019, contactless cards were the main market driver growing at +24% YoY and reaching an overall share of 61%. Besides that, the deployment of broader contactless infrastructure smoothly fosters the increased demand of contactless technology.
In 2020, the recommended physical distancing measures to fight COVID-19 have contributed to promote the use of contactless payments (i.e. Contactless payment transaction limit has been raised in at least 60 countries). And while the total share of contactless cards is estimated to grow to at least 65%, it is also expected that EMV demand will suffer a contraction during this year.
Telecom
Eurosmart confirms a mature market in 2019, impacted by regulations on SIM registration and consolidations of MNOs. A lower demand is also confirmed in 2019 representing about 5.2 billion units shipped.
In 2020, demand decrease is expected to continue as the COVID-19 crisis is not only impacting mobile phone shipments but also modifying consumers’ buying behavior – e.g. through different product mixes, as well as extended smartphone renewal cycles— and closing the main issuance channels mostly in prepaid countries. In parallel, standardization efforts have been suffering from some delays.
The embedded UICC is expected to grow further; new products supporting the embedded SIM technology have been launched by 3 out of the 5 largest smartphone makers. This accelerated adoption of embedded SIM technology is driven by factors such as the standardization of remote provisioning. In 2020, Eurosmart foresees embedded UICC shipments to grow at double digits despite Covid-19. So far, Removable SIM and embedded SIM coexist on the market and in the device, thus a rapid or strong substitution is not observed, neither expected.
Device Manufacturers
In 2019, a positive trend noticed in most countries led to a total volume of 465 million embedded secure elements shipped. Mobile payment, wallet and wearables have been showing a continuing growth. For 2020, the growth depends on the depth of the pandemic crisis that currently impacts mobile phones demand and consumer behavior.
Government
In 2019, the sector kept an accelerated growth of +6% YoY, driven by the implementation of many identity programs and product renewals around the globe. The increasing number of cross border travels explains the demand of travel and identity documents during the year. The leading choice of governments for the contactless interface made it reach 63% share of 2019 shipments. This share is expected to slightly progress during 2020 amid an overall impact in demand of ePassport and ID document, and mainly due to deteriorated capability and willingness to travel during the pandemic.
Eurosmart also expects a push of the demand coming from the adoption of the 2019 European Citizen’s ID and resident cards format, which includes contactless interface. This growth is underpinned by contactless Identity documents that are now readable by a mobile NFC reader. Digital identity initiatives and programs contribute to the growth of secure element usage for private identities and online services.
Industrial and automotive IoT
A continuing growth for the M2M market is confirmed for 2019. This market is driven by a push for connectivity and embedded security in the automotive sector and other industrial segments. Shipments of secure elements for connected cars and smart meters using cellular connectivity reached around 130 million units in 2019. While long term growth is likely to continue, shipments in 2020 will depend on the resilience of certain industry segments.
Eurosmart estimated WW µP TAM – (Mu)
* MNOs (secure element with a SIM application)
** Device manufacturers represent Original Equipment Manufacturers of mobile phones, tablets, navigation devices, wearables and other connected devices without SIM application (Embedded Secure Element without SIM application)
*** Others include Transport, Pay TV, and physical and logical access.
Eurosmart estimated WW µP TAM – (Mu) Contactless
Eurosmart estimated WW µP TAM – (Mu) Industrial IoT
Eurosmart Drivers
Eurosmart Driver Model
*Industrial IoT: SIMs, eUICC, M2M form factors (MFF2, …) currently limited to M2M usage in automotive, smart meters.
What is a secure element?
A SECURE ELEMENT contains a certified microcontroller and embedded software. It is secure, personal and portable and comes in multiple form factors : smart card, USB token, microSD, etc. Eurosmart members manufacture and personalize such secure elements, as well as the software and secure infrastructure around it. Secure elements have a strategic role in protecting digital identities and are vital to ensure digital security and privacy. Eurosmart’s Market and Technology Committee analyses shipments and forecasts of secure elements, highlighting new trends and creating adequate segmentation. The figures (given in millions of units) are divided into 5 main areas:
- Telecom: SIM cards (secure elements with a SIM application)
- Telecom: SIM cards (secure elements with a SIM application)
- Payment & banking: cards issued by banks and retailers for payment services (debit, credit, prepaid schemes…); cards issued by retailers or service providers for loyalty services; and social cards with payment application
- Government & healthcare: cards issued by governmental bodies for citizens identification (travel, ID and healthcare documents) and online services and cards issued by private health insurance companies
- Device manufacturers: mobile phones, tablets, navigation devices and other connected devices including an embedded secure element without SIM application
- Others: cards issued by operators, for transport, toll or car park services (i.e. “Transport”); cards issued by pay-TV operators for decrypting TV signals (i.e. “Pay TV”); physical and logical access cards.
Eurosmart Driver Connect
Each year, we also point the part of contactless secure elements amongst the total amount of secure elements actually shipped or forecasted. Mobility and contactless transactions are key drivers for growth, thanks to the convenient and secure user experience they enable.
2020 and 2021 outlook
Despite COVID-19, Eurosmart confirms the resilience of worldwide shipment of secure elements General disclaimer The COVID-19 crisis brought deep uncertainty to the global economy. Therefore, forecast figures at the time of publication are exceptional...
2019 shipments and 2020 outlook
COVID-19 General disclaimer Due to the uncertainty that COVID-19 crisis brought to the global economy, the consumer demand and the industry dynamics, along with the limited view we had of its impacts as of April 2020, forecast figures at the time of ...
2018 Secure element shipments: Eurosmart confirms its forecasts and a continued strength for worldwide secure element market
Eurosmart, the voice of the Digital Security Industry, issued its 2018 figures for Secure Element worldwide shipments and the 2019 forecasts. The overall growth was 2,8% for a total exceeding 10,2 billion unit. Financial Services In 2018, the demand ...
2018 forecasts: Eurosmart’s Secure element shipment forecasts confirm a global market increase in all main market sectors
Eurosmart, the Voice of the Digital Security Industry, announced the 2017 figures for worldwide secure element shipments and the 2018 forecasts. The overall growth trend is confirmed in 2017 (+3.6%) while the 2018 forecasts exceed 10 billion units. “...
2017 forecasts – Digital Security Industry To Pass The 10 Billion Mark In 2018 For Worldwide Shipments Of Secure Elements
Eurosmart expects steady business growth in 2017 and 2018 for the Digital Security Industry Cannes, 28th November 2017 – At the opening of TRUSTECH 2017, Eurosmart, the Voice of the Digital Security Industry, announced its annual forecast of worldwid...
2016 shipments – Eurosmart Reports Increase in Worldwide Secure Element Shipments in 2016
2017 forecasts confirm sustained growth for the Smart Security Industry Brussels, 18th May 2017 – Eurosmart, the Voice of the Smart Security Industry, announced the 2016 figures for worldwide secure element shipments and the corresponding 2017 foreca...
2015 shipments – Eurosmart Forecasts Continued Business Growth for Smart Security Industry Double-digit growth in worldwide shipments of secure elements in 2015
Brussels, 19th of May 2016 – At its annual General Assembly in Brussels, Eurosmart, the Voice of the Smart Security Industry, announced the 2015 figures for the worldwide secure elements shipments and the corresponding 2016 forecasts. Timothée Mangen...
2014 shipments – Shipments of secure elements up by over 12% in 2014
Eurosmart, the Voice of the Smart Security Industry, released the 2014 figures for the worldwide secure elements shipments and the smart secure contactless markets as well as the corresponding 2015 forecast. The data provided by Eurosmart consist of ...
Eurosmart forecasts over 7.5 billion Smart Secure Devices to be shipped in 2013
Eurosmart announces total Smart Secure Device shipments of 7 billion in 2012 and expects 9% annual growth in 2013. Telecom • Rapid ramp-up of NFC deployment expected to continue with significant volumes of NFC SIMs • M2M technology opens the door to ...
2011 : Strong volume growth momentum in 2010 and a positive start in 2011
At the General Assembly (3 May 2011, Brussels), Eurosmart has increased the final figure for shipments in Telecom market segment in 2010 to 4.2 billion; thereby bringing the total shipment of microcontroller based Smart Secure Devices to above 5.5 bi...
2009 : Yearly Market analysis and forecasts
All market segments showed positive volume growth in 2009, demonstrating the resilience and capacity of innovation of our Industry. The main sources of growth by market segment were: Telecom – GSM penetration in emerging markets is fueling steady gro...
2008 : Yearly Market analysis and forecasts
Telecom: We anticipate a growth in volumes during FY2009 in the range of 3% to 9% compared to FY2008, i.e between 3300Mu and 3500Mu. Emerging markets continue to fuel the growth in volume with, for instance, millions of new subscribers in India and 3...
2006 : Yearly Market analysis and forecasts
Mobile communication: another year of strong unit growth: – Growth is driven by almost all regions and emerging countries such as India in Asia, Middle East and Colombia in South America – Chinese market is growing again in 2006 after a stable year i...
2005 : Yearly Market analysis and forecasts
Mobile communication – Mobile communication confirms its status of the largest and fastest growing segment with a growth of 24% in volume compared to 2004 – Growth is mostly driven by emerging countries in all regions: Latin America, Eastern Europe, ...
2003 : Yearly Market analysis and forecasts
– Memory smart cards declined by 15% and passed just below 1 billion mark shipment. – Microprocessor smart card very strong growth: 40% fuelled for the first time in history above memory cards shipments. – Wireless Telecom SIM Cards Very Strong Growt...
2000 : Yearly Market analysis and forecasts
A tremendous growth of the wireless sector (+85%), with a major impact on the global revue of the smart card industry. – A high increase of the global processor cards market (+36%), as fast as the previous year. – A lesser progression of the global.....
2002 : Yearly Market analysis and forecasts
– Return to growth of Wireless Telecom SIM Cards : +10%. – Banking/Retail microprocessor grew 16% reaching 175 Million units. – Total Microprocessor shipments grew 17% boosted by emerging segments such as Government/health, Transport, Pay-TV, IT Secu...